Hindenburg’s Take on Trey Lance

(Via gobison.com)

Height: 6’4 Weight: 226lbs 40 yard dash: TBD

2,947 Career passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 1 interception 65% completion percentage

1,325 Career rushing yards, 18 touchdowns

19 games played (2 in 2018, 1 in 2020)

Trey Lance is one of the most polarizing prospects I can recall at the quarterback position. I know (and respect) several analysts who have him as high as QB2 and a surefire top 5 pick, and others who wouldn’t feel comfortable drafting him anywhere near that high. I came back to Lance’s film several times over the span of several months before finalizing his report. Let’s get to it.

Arm Talent- Lance can make every throw at the next level with touch or velocity. Shows the requisite arm strength to drive the ball to the boundary from the far hash. Plenty of examples of him driving the ball vertically with no issue of balls dying before reaching the intended target. Has shown the ability to attack the middle of the field with high velocity passes. Has success on touch passes down the field.

Accuracy- This is an area difficult to truly get a grasp on, as tight window throws were scarce and rarely was Lance required to throw his intended targets open. Generally speaking he is highly accurate if his mechanics are sound. Noticed an issue of missing high on intermediate routes and overthrowing deep targets. If he attempted to throw from a still base or off of his back foot his accuracy severely diminished. Extremely comfortable and accurate throwing on the move.

Athleticism- Trey Lance is a big and physical presence at the quarterback position. He isn’t going to win every foot race, but he is fast. Uses his frame to fight for extra yards when running and won’t hesitate to lower his shoulder and run over smaller and weaker defenders. Is difficult to bring down in the pocket between his ability to scramble and break out of would be sacks. His combination of speed and strength at the position is rare.

Mental Processing- This is the biggest issue I have with Lance as a potential NFL quarterback. Rarely was he able to successfully come off of his first read. He is visibly uncomfortable when tasked with making a true decision from the pocket. Most plays were designed to be one read and scramble types, where he did show the ability to create outside of structure. There will be a steep learning curve at the next level.

The Comparison: I rarely make player comps. I’m not good at them. I don’t have a great feel for it, except when I do. Trey Lance’s player comparison is Vince Young.

My Take: I highlighted some of the biggest areas above, and I put Lance through my grading process. He’s a boom or bust type of player, which are so difficult to project. I see Lance as a future starter/potential impact player, and would feel comfortable drafting him mid day 2.

This isn’t how all of my final scouting reports will look, still playing with all of that. I figured what better way to welcome back the site than with a controversial player? As always, I want to hear from you about it. I expect some push back on this one. That’s okay, I’m here for it. Drop a comment or find me on Twitter @HindenburgScout

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