22 Sep 2020

Home of the NFL Offseason

Smartest Ways to Invest Your Stimulus Check: NFL Draft Prop Bets (First Round)

I haven’t checked my 401(k) since February, but I’m pretty confident that it’s worth less now than it was two months ago. I would be concerned, but thankfully the NFL Draft is this week so I will be making all of it back and then some on prop bets.

I’m riding a one game winning streak betting sports after taking Mike Conley Jr. to win the NBA Horse Competition at +450 and expect the heater to continue for the next 72 hours. This will probably be the only taste of real sports and only chance to gamble on something that isn’t Russian Table Tennis or video games…. I’m sorry “eSports” for another couple weeks/months so dive in and enjoy while it lasts.

Odds courtesy of MyBookie – Only at MyBookie you can bet on your favorite teams and athletes! Bet with the Best at Mybookie.ag!

(MyBookie is not a sponsor (yet) but since I’ll be taking money from them this week, I figured a quick plug is least I could do. And I am available to discuss sponsorship opportunities at the moment in case the right person sees this.)

1. Total Offensive Players Drafted in 1st Round

  • Over 16.5 -250
  • Under 16.5 +170

PICK: Under 16.5

Assuming there isn’t an Adam Schefter bombshell this afternoon or a Laremy Tunsil gas mask situation, I can say with 100% certainty that 13 offensive players will hear their names called tonight –three quarterbacks, five offensive tackles, one interior lineman, four wide receivers.

On the other side of the ball, I have 11 defensive players checked as guaranteed first round picks — two defensive tackles, three edge rushers, one linebacker, one safety and four corners.

After those 24, there are 20-25 names that would be strong possibilities to fill the remaining eight slots. Offense has the advantage as far as locks go but the overwhelming majority of the possibles are defensive players. Pass rushers and defensive backs This is the deepest class of receivers I’ve ever seen so I think we’ll see quite a few first-round talents in any other class fall to day two or three. Running back is so devalued as a position that I don’t see more than one, if anyone at all goes in the first round.

I could have led with the fact that there’s no way I’m even considering a -250 bet but that would have been the only explanation needed and I assume you’re reading this for more than my philosophy making picks.

2. Total SEC Players Drafted in 1st Round

  • Over 15.5 +165
  • Under 15.5 -240

PICK: Over 15.5

  • Guaranteed first-rounder: Burrow (LSU), Tua (BAMA), Jedrick Wills (BAMA), Andrew Thomas (UGA), Jerry Jeudy (BAMA), Henry Ruggs III (BAMA), Derrick Brown (AUB), Javon Kinlaw (SC), K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU), C.J. Henderson (UF), Justin Jefferson (LSU) — 11
  • High Probability: D’Andre Swift (UGA), Kristian Fulton (LSU), Xavier McKinney (BAMA), Grant Delpit (LSU), Damien Lewis (LSU), Trevon Diggs (BAMA) — 6
  • Potential: Willie Gay Jr. (MISS ST), Marlon Davidson (AUB), Patrick Queen (LSU), Isaiah Wilson (UGA), Jordan Elliott (MIZZOU) — 5

Full disclosure, I was born and raised in Memphis and graduated from Tennessee so I do have a cultural predisposition to SEC bias. But since I bleed objectivity and journalistic integrity, no need to worry. This SEC class is loaded (what else is new?) so if you’re thinking of letting your entire stimulus check ride on one bet, Over 15.5 SEC players is the way to go. Also, it just means more.

3. Total Number of QB’s Drafted in 1st Round

  • Over 4 +140
  • Under 4 -180

PICK: Under 4

Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert are all locks to go early in the first round and I’d give Utah State’s Jordan Love an 85-90% chance. There is a 0.001% chance that another quarterback from this class slides up to the first round. This pick will more than likely push but 10-15% chance of a win vs. basically no risk of losing. Like Joe Burrow, there’s no downside.

4. Total Alabama Players Drafted in Round 1

  • Over 5.5 +130
  • Under 5.5 -170

PICK: Over 5.5

  • Guaranteed: Tua, Jedrick Wills, Jeudy, Ruggs
  • High probability: Xavier McKinney
  • Potential (50/50): Trevon Diggs

I don’t love this pick in terms of win probability but it wouldn’t be surprising to see all six come of the board in the first round and at +130, you’re getting value back on a riskier bet. Anytime I’m on the fence about a bet with Alabama, I’ll check in with my friend Harvey, who is a die-hard Tide fan. His input really sealed the deal on taking the Over for me.

5. When Will CeeDee Lamb Be Drafted

  • Over 12.5 Pick +150
  • Under 12.5 Pick -200

PICK: Under 12.5

I actually have Jerry Jeudy graded as the top wide receiver in the 2020 class (SEC bias again) but I’m definitely in the minority. CeeDee Lamb is a heavy favorite to be the first receiver drafted but either way, the Jaguars (No. 9), Jets (No. 11) and Raiders (No. 12) all have needs at wide receiver, so there’s absolutely no way Lamb is falling to No. 13. Not great odds at -200 but it’s a layup. Just take the free money.

6. Total LSU Players Drafted in Round 1

  • Over 5.5 Pick +250
  • Under 5.5 Pick -400

PICK: Over 5.5

  • Guaranteed: Burrow, K’Lavon Chaisson, Kristian Fulton, Justin Jefferson
  • High probability: Patrick Queen, Grant Delpit
  • Potential (50/50): Damien Lewis

If Grant Delpit falls out of the first round, he’ll go down as the biggest steal of 2020. I’m not as high on Queen, but still wouldn’t blink at someone taking him in the mid-20’s. Gun to my head, I think five Tigers get picked Thursday night but +250 is too enticing to go the other way.

7. When Will Justin Herbert Be Drafted

  • Over 5.5. Pick -200
  • Under 5.5 Pick +150

PICK: Over 5.5

I wouldn’t take Herbert anywhere in the top 12 so the idea that Miami would take him instead of Tua is mind-boggling. Brian Flores is too smart to make that mistake so I’m chalking those rumors up to pre-draft smoke and mirrors. The Chargers need a quarterback and Herbert would have a year or two to develop behind Tyrod Taylor in LA. I don’t condone anything the Chargers are doing — drafting Herbert or relying on Tyrod Taylor — but as long as Justin Herbert goes after No. 5, cool.

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